Andy Kessler

WSJ: Can You Trust Anybody?

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https://www.wsj.com/opinion/can-you-trust-anybody-president-media-influencer-ai-aa13b7ea

Who can you trust anymore? Just before leaving office, President Biden railed against a “tech-industrial complex” claiming, “The truth is smothered by lies told for power and for profit.” Hmmm, was he referring to the coverup of his own health decline and the sharp-as-a-tack charade? Can we trust presidents? The press? Anyone?

We’re told to trust the process. Trust the system. Even trust the science. Trust always starts with a belief in truth and adds in a little integrity, reliability and character. Often, it’s more faith than belief. Being trustworthy is the first attribute of Boy Scout Law. How quaint. We’re told to trust “experts.” I like to say, “I trust them about as far as I can throw them.”

In 1964, according to Pew Research, 77% of Americans trusted the government to do what is right. Around that time, the Free Speech Movement’s Jack Weinberg coined the phrase, “Don’t trust anyone over 30.” Maybe that was the start of trust’s decline.

Lately, 22% of Americans trust government. Ouch. Lockdowns, social distancing, masks and school closings didn’t help. Neither did the Hunter Biden laptop coverup.

“Donald Trump” and “trust” rarely cohabitate the same sentence. Ask Elon Musk. The president has done some smart things and plenty of dumb ones. But on optics—which leads to trust or superficial trust anyway—he’s failed. The Trump administration’s crypto hustle, going after political enemies and Middle East deals don’t signal trustworthiness. Are 747s the new political-action committees? Once lost, trust is hard to regain.

Technology amplifies mistrust.

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WSJ: Donald Trump vs. Bruce Springsteen

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https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-vs-bruce-springsteen-music-politics-6685d3cf

Opening his “Land of Hope and Dreams” tour in Manchester, England, New Jersey rocker Bruce Springsteen called the Trump administration “corrupt, incompetent and treasonous.” To be fair, Europeans are used to these kinds of leaders. President Trump fired back, calling Mr. Springsteen “a pushy, obnoxious JERK, who fervently supported Crooked Joe Biden” and a “dried out ‘prune’ of a rocker.” A billionaire slap-fest!

I’m claiming authority on this matter, as I did shots of Old Grand-Dad with Mr. Springsteen on his 35th birthday at Big Man’s West in Red Bank, N.J. As with this feud, I wasn’t invited. I just happened to be there.

Sure, both men think they’re the boss, but it’s more than that. Truth be told, Mr. Trump has been playing to Mr. Springsteen’s original audience for quite a while. Think downtrodden, desperate, struggling, working class—though Springsteen fans are more likely middle-aged folks absolving their guilt through music, thankful they didn’t grow up that way. “Workin’ in the field / You get your back burned / Workin’ ’neath the wheels / You get your facts learned.” Anyway, the psyche fits the MAGA crowd, minus 50 years. No wonder these guys are feuding.

Mr. Springsteen had the perfect invented persona in the 1970s and ’80s—as we emerged with fits and starts from an industrial era to a digital age, Slate called him an “endearing Jersey wharf rat.” His music was rebellious. Nonconformist. “I hid in the clouded wrath of the crowd / But when they said, ‘Sit down,’ I stood up.” Have problems? Just jump in your “chrome-wheeled, fuel-injected” Chevy and roar down the highway “jammed with broken heroes.” No one actually did this, but it felt good to think about. Now we doom-scroll instead.

I’m a fan and have seen Mr. Springsteen maybe a dozen times in concert. I learned to make a bathroom run when the E Street Band launched into the long and drippy “The River.” A friend noted his concerts became like Dockers commercials, chock full of baby boomers. I stopped going when he added a rock violinist and I noticed the teleprompter. Call me a purist.

So are Bruce and Donald playing to the same “tramps” hoping to rise from “these badlands?” Not so fast.

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WSJ: A New Plan for the FAA

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https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-new-plan-for-the-faa-air-traffic-controller-tech-upgrade-flights-d5e9d9f0

After equipment failures, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is limiting the number of flights in and out of Newark Liberty International Airport, telling “Meet the Press,” “Listen, the system is old.” Ya think? We have Waymos and Teslas driving autonomously on city streets, yet our skies are controlled by radar, radios, floppy disks, paper strips (yes, literally paper) and computer visuals out of the 1983 movie “WarGames.”

The Federal Aviation Administration has been working on a modernized NextGen air-traffic control system conceived in 2003, set to roll out in 2025, oops, check that, 2030, but really more like 2040. Meanwhile, Mr. Duffy wants billions to Band-Aid today’s antiquated system. There has to be a better way.

The FAA tracks and manages more than 45,000 flights every day, carrying 2.9 million passengers. Much of the equipment is 25 years old and analog. Many displays are 2-D. Worse, air-traffic controllers pass along paper flight progress strips with flight number, destination and times flown over various radio beacons to track flights—like order slips at a burger joint. Controllers require training in Oklahoma City, and it takes years to become certified.

FAA modernization so far is something called Terminal Flight Data Manager, which features re-created paper-strip images on computer displays. San Francisco got upgraded just last month—12 airports have been so far. Newark’s upgrade is scheduled for October 2028. Government time. Meanwhile, communication lines go down, radios fail, and air-traffic-controller fatigue drives absenteeism.

The good news: Almost all commercial and many private planes already broadcast their GPS location, direction and speed via Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B). Why not harness that data?

I recently saw a video of a passenger playing the 3-D multiplayer videogame Fortnite on a Qatar Airways jet equipped with Starlink internet. That’s better technology than pilots or controllers have. 

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WSJ: The New Right’s Zombienomics

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https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-new-rights-zombienomics-trade-tariff-trump-bessent-f396f318

RIP free markets. Because of tariffs, Ford is raising prices. Toy maker Mattel is too. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News, “We don’t want to decouple—what we want is fair trade.” President Trump was nice enough to define what “fair” means: “Children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls.” This is Economics 101 of the New Right.

It’s infectious. On April 30, only three Republican senators voted to block Mr. Trump’s tariff policies by terminating the bogus April 2 “national emergency” declaration. Three! The rest, probably worried about being primaried, are singing from the Trump “fair trade” hymn book to rationalize industrial policy. Like all industrial policies, tariffs will fail—please this time before the soup lines start.

Why so much tariff love? The mind-meld on tariffs is about power. Everyone wants his finger in the pie. Politicians and technocrats insist they know how to direct a $115 trillion global economy and how many dolls your child needs at Christmas. C’mon now.

Power corrupts. Like identity politics and climate hysteria, passion for tariffs is a sleight of hand to grab power. Tariffs bring insider dealing and special interests, as we see with iPhone and some auto exemptions. Are Barbie exceptions next? Mr. Trump admits that tech leaders “all hated me in my first term, and now they’re kissing my a—.” It’s cronyism on steroids.

Tariff bedfellows are far and wide. Michigan’s Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said last month, “Tariffs need to be used like a scalpel, not a hammer.” Let me guess, carving out foreign autos? Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D., Wash.), a Mod Squad progressive, tweeted, “Tariffs can be an incredibly useful tool to invest in American jobs”—except, of course, she doesn’t like how Mr. Trump is doing them. Oren Cass of American Compass, a siren of the New Right, told the New York Times in a pretzel-logic quote, “I actually see tariffs as the much more free-market position.”

I applaud the New Right’s cultural arm, battling identity politics and closing the border. But economically, the New Right isn’t new. And it isn’t right.

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WSJ: The Economy is in a Pickle

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https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-economy-is-in-a-pickle-private-equity-risk-fbc4b2b2

Harvard is educating us all—on what’s ailing Wall Street and the U.S. economy. Facing the freeze of $2.2 billion in federal grants, Harvard is selling $750 million in bonds, for a total of $1.2 billion this fiscal year. But with a $53 billion endowment, why incur debt?

Liquidity. Harvard, like too many universities, followed Yale’s lead and piled its endowment into long-term private equity—now 39% of its portfolio. Another 32% is in hedge funds. Returns are critical as nearly 40% of Harvard’s operating budget comes from endowment distributions. When times are good, the university sees great returns. When times are rough, like now, there is little liquidity. As for Yale, it may sell up to $6 billion of its private-equity holdings. A fire sale?

It gets worse. Private equity has its own liquidity problems and isn’t providing capital back to investors. PE firms are sitting on 29,000 unsold companies worth some $3.6 trillion. These are deals that made sense when interest rates were low. Now private-equity firms can’t sell or don’t want to sell at a loss.

Meanwhile, private-equity firms have been raising oodles of funds for private credit—nonbank lending and structured finance that doesn’t trade publicly. The top private credit firms, Apollo, Blackstone, Ares, KKR and Guggenheim, have $1.7 trillion in private debt under management. It’s a lucrative business that has boomed in the past five years.

Beware. Private credit often lends money at a premium yield to B-rated loans. That means riskier loans, not pristine borrowers by any stretch of the imagination. And that premium has been rising in 2025—a sign that private credit is taking on more risk.

What worries me is that, as with derivatives during the 2008 financial crisis, we have no idea how private credit will do in a downturn. It’s starting to get funky.

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WSJ: Capitalism Won the Vietnam War

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https://www.wsj.com/opinion/capitalism-won-the-vietnam-war-modern-effects-american-politics-and-vietnamese-economy-c65f4e58

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

This week will see another Liberation Day—in Vietnam. I walked along the parade route leading to the former Presidential Palace, now Reunification Palace. Artillery guns are lined up along the Saigon River to celebrate the victory on April 30, 1975—50 years ago Wednesday.

In America we remember it differently. As Saigon fell, Operation Frequent Wind evacuated 7,000 Americans and locals. Helicopters ran in 10-minute intervals to the USS Okinawa and other ships in the Seventh Fleet. The last helicopter out—the famous photo you may remember is from the Pittman apartment building the day before—left the U.S. Embassy around 8 a.m., evacuating the last of a Marine Guard.

Later that day, North Vietnamese troops in a Soviet tank, and, with a hint of the future, an identical Chinese knockoff, busted through the gates and liberated the palace, ending the war. It’s well beyond my pay grade to relitigate the Vietnam War, but there are so many lessons.

The first was the damage to America’s national self-esteem. We lost. This was best exemplified in the 1981 movie “Stripes,” with Bill Murray’s character, Winger, saying, “We’re soldiers. But we’re American soldiers! We’ve been kicking ass for 200 years! We’re 10 and 1!” Ouch.

This loss of confidence hung over the rest of the 1970s until a raging bull market erased some of the glum. But not all. There is still a lingering anti-American psychosis. A July 2024 Gallup poll found only 41% of respondents were “extremely proud” to be American, near 2020’s all-time low.

Vietnam War protesters (“better red than dead”) are finally aging out of relevance. Think John Kerry, Joan Baez, Jane Fonda.

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WSJ: Our Capitulation Nation

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https://www.wsj.com/opinion/capitulation-nation-everyone-folding-negotiation-trade-trump-f00dd69e

The White House claims that phones were “ringing off the hook” with countries caving to President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, the bond market backed up and stocks sold off until Mr. Trump folded like a cocktail napkin by pausing most reciprocal tariffs. Ukraine has signed a memorandum of understanding leading toward a mineral-rights deal. So much folding. We’re having an Origami moment. Does anyone have a backbone anymore?

Apparently not. After years of living off electric-vehicle tax credits and green loans, Elon Musk folded and is now a born-again free marketer. He even suggested a free-trade zone with the European Union, calling America-first architect Peter Navarro “a moron.” Mr. Musk needs to work on his insults to become truly Trumpian.

Nothing is sacred. A recent New York Times op-ed urged Democrats to embrace free trade. What’s next for the left? Free markets? Small government? Speaking of folding, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is tackling crime and transgender athletes. The capitulation will continue until morale improves.

Mr. Trump caved to Apple’s Tim Cook with talk of tariff exemptions for phones and computers coming from China, or, as the president would say, “CHY-na.” The only real pushback to tariff mania are suits by the Liberty Justice Center and others claiming violations of the “major questions” doctrine. They’re right.

It sure looks to me as if the Trump administration conceded a hands-off approach to crypto, one that will eventually burn a lot of individual investors, for a $TRUMP meme coin.

Corporations are folding along the dotted line as well.

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WSJ; Trump’s Protectionist Bunker

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https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-protectionist-bunker-tariffs-trade-policy-business-economy-d156f047

“Mister, we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again,” goes the “All in the Family” theme song. Donald Trump, who grew up 15 minutes from Archie Bunker, took it seriously. “We’re bringing wealth back to America,” says tariff-happy Mr. Trump. “That’s a big thing.” Those in the Trump administration with Wall Street experience should know better.

“The American dream is not ‘let them eat flat screens,’ ” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month on “Meet the Press” to justify tariffs. “It’s mortgages, it’s cars.” Clearly he hasn’t been to Walmart on Black Friday.

Mr. Trump’s America-first policy, as hallucinated by trade adviser Peter Navarro, is this: Make in America. Invest in America. Everything done by Americans. A self-sufficient, stand-alone country.

It’s more of a political agenda than an economic one—more about protectionism and isolationism. Trade? Globalization? Increased living standards? How quaint.

Look, I’m all for America on top, but America first isn’t how you get there. America first is a vertical model: Do everything. But vertical always fails. Vertical IBM made chips, wrote software, assembled computers and wrapped plastic around them. Vertical AT&T provided phones, wires and both local and long-distance calls.

Fortunately, vertical gave way to horizontal: industries organized into layers of expertise, sorted by value added.

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WSJ: Is Anyone a Patriot Anymore?

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https://www.wsj.com/opinion/is-anyone-a-patriot-anymore-america-commitment-country-f4056f00

“Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.” According to the author James Boswell, Samuel Johnson said this on April 7, 1775, at the Literary Club in London. It’s been one of the most misunderstood lines for 250 years. Johnson most likely wasn’t putting down patriotism but instead putting down those—perhaps William Pitt—who don’t follow up their patriotic words with actions.

Of course, everyone thinks they’re patriotic. Johnson once wrote, “A patriot is he whose publick conduct is regulated by one single motive, the love of his country; who, as an agent in parliament, has, for himself, neither hope nor fear, neither kindness nor resentment, but refers everything to the common interest.” Actually, I can’t think of anyone who fits that bill.

 

 

Donald Trump’s America-first bombast has an implication of patriotism, but is it? Make America Great/Healthy/Wealthy/Wise/(fill in the blank) Again sounds America rah-rah but details imply a special interests-driven agenda. Industrial policy wrapped in a flag—destroying nearly $10 trillion in stock market value. 

So what is patriotism? It’s often defined as love, devotion and attachment to one’s country. I think that better defines nationalism. Patriotism is something more.

Abraham Lincoln in 1858 identified an “electric cord in that Declaration [of Independence] that links the hearts of patriotic and liberty-loving men together, that will link those patriotic hearts as long as the love of freedom exists in the minds of men throughout the world.” OK, now we’re getting somewhere. Love of freedom and patriotism are tied together for the American version of patriotism. That sets a high bar.

It doesn’t always work out. The Vietnam War was a low point for patriotism.

 

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WSJ: A New Approach to Addiction

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https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-new-approach-to-addiction-phoenix-fitness-community-mental-health-a3591f99

It wasn’t hard to find Scott Strode when we first met. He was the big guy in a black T-shirt with the word “SOBER” splashed across it. Mr. Strode is founder of the Phoenix, a national “sober active” community. Addiction statistics in the U.S. are sobering. According to Mr. Strode’s book, “Rise. Recover. Thrive,” one-third of Americans have substance-abuse issues or mental disorders.

When drinking, Mr. Strode felt valued. “People wanted to spend time with me. And I found community,” he says. “It’s just what we were building it around wasn’t healthy.” Alcohol. Cocaine. Dependency. Until one night he finally hit bottom. “I couldn’t imagine someone having to tell my mom this is how I died.”

The road to sobriety wasn’t easy for Mr. Strode, but he found solace in physical challenges. “I saw a poster for ice climbing,” he said. “It gave me something to strive for, and that led me into the boxing gym and triathlons and racing Iron Mans.” But it wasn’t enough. “I realized when I took other people with me, I felt lifted in a different way.”

I wasn’t sure what he meant. “Getting into recovery is like getting out of a burning building,” he said. “But there are other people in there, so you have to reach back in to help get them out. By using my passion to help others, it filled a void. That was really what the Phoenix was born from.”

The Phoenix Multisport active recovery community, its original name, started in Boulder, Colo., roughly 20 years ago. It was funded by friends and a few grants—no fees. Others might have been content with helping one community. Not Mr. Strode. After a few years, he started helping active-duty service members and many others in Colorado Springs and set up a location in Denver.

What’s the magic? “Your life gets so much bigger, and you start to realize what’s possible.”

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