Andy Kessler

WSJ: A Nation of Quitters

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-nation-of-quitters-great-enabling-exodus-working-age-men-parents-stimulus-covid-quit-retirement-bohemian-videogame-11664112795

The unemployment rate was 3.5% in July, the same as in February 2020, but the U.S. has three million fewer workers. Where did everyone go? This in an economy with 11.2 million job openings. It’s mostly men 25 to 54 who haven’t come back to work. Now a McKinsey study suggests that 40% of workers are thinking of quitting their jobs. Does anyone want to work anymore?

Everyone has an explanation for the Great Resignation: extended unemployment benefits, eviction moratoriums, baby boomers retiring, work-from-home complacency, anxiety, long Covid. Sure, all reasonable excuses. Here’s my theory: Too many got a taste of not working and liked it. A lot. Until recently, many people could make more money by not working and became glued to screens, Insta-Tok-ing and living the easy life by sponging off the rest of us. What’s not to like? Parisians called those with unconventional lifestyles “bohemians.” Now we have unemployed, perpetually plugged-in, dopamine-addled Cyber Bohemians—let’s call them Cy-Bos.

Before you send me hate mail, I’m only talking about the underachievers, including those who traded crypto and NFTs and lost all their stimulus and unemployment money after the crypto crash. Now Cy-Bos, with nothing better to do, are streaming away, including the first five of an eventual 50 hours of Amazon’s new “Lord of the Rings” show—“and in the darkness bind them.” I’ve also discovered that a huge idle couch-bound class spends its days playing the battle-royale videogame “Fall Guys,” the latest craze, with 50 million players. It’s nonviolent, almost cuddly, and—be warned—ridiculously addictive fun.

Zoned-out Cy-Bos, at least in 19 states, can buy weed at dispensaries (Twinkies optional), including Oakland, Calif.’s descriptively named Smoakland, which delivers! Yes, while you’re working, many 20- and 30-somethings are giggling and wasting away playing mindless games and humming along to those classic Styx lyrics, “Is it any wonder I’ve got too much time on my hands?”

It is cultural malaise, motivational submission. Society now promotes mediocrity and calls it equity—witness the scarcity of SAT test-score requirements for college. Sadly, once you get a taste of the easy life, it is difficult to pull up your socks and try hard again—self-induced avolition.

Why so many quitters? And who’s paying for DoorDashed dinners and the exorbitant rent for all these un- and underemployed?

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WSJ: A Faraday Is Worth 1,000 Faucis

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-faraday-is-worth-1-000-faucis-science-electricity-computer-dynamo-equity-fairness-stem-pandemic-pew-trust-experts-11663505143

The public’s trust in scientists is way down this year, according to the Pew Research Center. Ya think? “Fifteen days to slow the spread” and “flatten the curve” may have something to do with it. Some airlines still hand out disinfecting wipes as you board—to combat an airborne virus. Real scientists, like Michael Faraday (1791-1867), whose birthday is this week, would be rolling their eyes.

What did Faraday do? Well, if there was no Faraday, there would be no modern economy. A former bookbinder who studied magnetics, in 1820 he noted that electricity applied to a loop of wire could get a magnet to move through it, an insight that produced the electric motor found in every fan, vacuum cleaner, washing machine and electric car. Faraday then turned his own thinking inside out. In 1831 he invented the dynamo, an inverse motor. Moving a loop of wires around a fixed magnet can induce electricity. Place a dynamo next to running water, like Niagara Falls, and you can generate reliable electricity.

No Faraday, no communications. By running electricity down a long wire to an electromagnetic relay switch, you can ring a bell. This innovation became the telegraph, telephone and today’s wireless devices, which are all based on Faraday’s induction.

No Faraday, no computers. The 1945 Eniac computer used those same electromagnetic relays, open representing zero and closed representing one. While today’s semiconductors are based on the quantum effect—thank theoretical physicists Niels Bohr and Max Planck for that—they need gobs of electricity for power, which Faraday’s work helps generate.

Faraday took science seriously: “Conclusions are drawn from data, and its principles supported by evidence from facts.” Facts! Imagine that.

Why is science so maligned these days? To me, the turning point came in 1984, with (fictional) Columbia professor and ghostbuster Dr. Peter Venkman, played by Bill Murray, who when questioned said, “Back off, man. I’m a scientist.”

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WSJ: The Hot-and-Cold Economy

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hot-and-cold-economy-federal-reserve-inflation-interest-rate-hikes-wages-earnings-multiples-jobs-layoffs-recession-mortgages-11662809991

F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote that “the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” George Orwell labeled the ability doublethink or indoctrination. Psychologists call it cognitive dissonance. I call it the current economy.

There are mixed signals everywhere. Inflation is running hot at an 8.5% annual rate—subtract food and energy and it’s 5.9%. Despite a string of long-overdue Federal Reserve rate hikes, credit is still loose and will be until short-term rates rise above inflation. At 2.25% to 2.5%, we have a way to go.

Prices are popping. Restaurants everywhere seem to have New York prices. Haircuts are more. Same for doctor’s bills, furniture and Uber rides. There’s still $5 rotisserie chicken, and the $1.50 hot-dog special, but it sure feels like Costco added a couple of bucks to every other item.

More heat: The U.S. economy added 315,000 jobs in August, and unemployment is 3.7% as workers are hard to find for the 11.2 million available jobs. Stores are closing or limiting hours owing to a lack of workers. And unionization is back, burdening Amazon, Starbucks and even Google’s cafeteria. A national railroad strike might hit soon.

Once wage hikes start, they are hard to stop. John Deere increased workers’ pay by 10% last November. Lowe’s is giving out $55 million in bonuses this quarter. I expect more pay increases of 10% to 15% over the next year. The new- and used-car market is still tight because of chip shortages, but that’s almost over. Container ships now are idling outside East Coast ports, as I observed flying into New York recently. Hot, hot, hot.

Policy makers keep pouring gasoline on the inflation bonfire. California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a law that would increase fast-food worker wages up to $22 an hour next year from $15.

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