Andy Kessler

WSJ: The Metaverse is Already Here

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-facebook-mark-zuckerberg-metaverse-is-already-here-virtual-reality-headset-oculus-11640525817

Are you ready to live in a 3D-navigable, socially connected, conscience-curving, carefree virtual world? Facebook’s pursuit of this metaverse dream as its next platform is bold, though it may be like swapping out a car’s engine while it’s going 100 mph—hard to do without crashing. Look at Apple as it transitioned from computers to iPods and iPhones. Facebook even changed its name to Meta. “The dream was to feel present with the people we care about,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg explained. He also promised “immersive all-day experiences.” Facebook may need a new platform anyway if the Biden administration dismantles its current one in the name of antitrust.

This has been tried before. A virtual space called “Second Life” launched in 2003. You could buy digital property and clothes with real money and hang out with other blocky avatars. It was early days. Naysayers in Silicon Valley liked to say that “Second Life” was for those who didn’t have a first one.

The metaverse marks another interface transition. Green and amber text monitors gave way to Apple’s and Windows’ graphical user interface, making computers much easier to use. Then slow modems connected us to the internet and we used the barren search-page interfaces of Yahoo and Google. Eventually graphics and photos sneaked in, especially as blogs and social networks boomed, and smartphones with cameras turned many into photo bugs. Then video was added, peaking this year with TikTok and multi-tile Zoom calls. Each interface iteration means humans spend less time navigating the computer and more time harnessing its power.

Think of the metaverse as another change of perspective. Videogames have 3D worlds already, a big jump from 2D Tetris. Epic Games, maker of “Fortnite,” has more than 350 million registered users. Roblox, for younger gamers, has more than 160 million active users. There are thousands of 3D games on smartphones. An estimated 2.5 billion people play videogames daily, a $150 billion market. My guess is this is where Facebook will go shopping—after it begs for permission from the Federal Trade Commission.

No one reads a videogame instruction manual; players learn by doing. Entire generations have learned how to interact with computers by playing videogames, even if they were mostly killing one another virtually.

Facebook paid $3 billion for virtual-reality headset maker Oculus in 2014 and likely has poured in billions more.

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WSJ: Back to the Office in 2022

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/back-to-the-office-in-2022-work-booster-omicron-meetings-lockdown-11639943352

A Chicago Tribune headline declares: “Experts warn of brutal flu season.” Of course. With never-ending lockdowns (in California especially), working from home, and even people alone in cars wearing masks, we’ve probably lost immunity to many illnesses—and patience for many former day-to-day annoyances.

I hate to break it to you, but with last week’s news that booster shots reduce the severity of the Omicron variant and the success of Paxlovid, Pfizer’s new antiviral pill, it’s back to the office in 2022 for most of us. But are we again vulnerable to a host of diseases, plus many inconveniences we’ve long forgotten? Life moves pretty fast. I don’t know if most folks are ready.

Let’s face it, after more than 20 months of the roll-out-of-bed commute, many have zero tolerance for traffic—remember rubbernecking delays? Or wearing pants, let alone clean clothes. Or drinking industrial-grade office coffee mellowed by nondairy creamers. Your body will reject that like week-old fish.

It’s the broom for Zoom. Welcome back to conference rooms and crowded in-person meetings, including that marketing associate who subtly coughs while you’re talking, and you always fall for it and exhibit common decency and pause only to be interrupted by the cougher and have the meeting hijacked. Yeah, bet you don’t miss that.

Remember cubicles? Or open-office layouts—the vast sea of desks? There was no privacy, and employees would have to crawl under their workstation to make personal phone calls. During lockdowns, your kids might have run noisily around your apartment or house, but you could yell at them to stop, unlike annoying co-workers.

I think one of the greatest abilities the human mind has is its tolerance for small talk. What was with Pete Davidson’s hot pink hoodie when Steph Curry set the record for career 3-pointers?

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WSJ: Old Wisdom for Today’s Markets

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/old-wisdom-for-todays-markets-wall-street-meme-stocks-interest-rates-crypto-inflation-bubble-11639323322

I love Wall Street adages—find all 30—that help explain today’s crazy markets. One that keeps popping into my head lately is “bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.” I’ve called this market bubblicious, and markets still push relentlessly higher. My mentor, the famed investor Barton Biggs, explained, “A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.” And now as coronavirus variants come and go, we see 500-point yo-yo swings. Be warned, no one rings a bell at the top of markets.

Near-zero interest rates fuel the fire. Don’t fight the Fed! But rates may rise this spring, which is why high flyers and meme stocks have been reined in. A good proxy is the ARK Innovation ETF, down 38% from its February peak. It is smart to leave early before everyone rushes for the exits.

Maybe stocks will revert to the mean, but what is normal anymore? I remember a Wall Street strategist who claimed stocks go from 25% undervalued to 75% overvalued. Sensible but wrong—the price is always right. Stocks end every trading day valued correctly. Yes, even in the past few weeks, with stocks rising and falling like a runaway roller coaster. Billions of shares traded balance millions of bullish and bearish thoughts to reflect consensus expectations. Or as Efficient Market Hypothesis believers say, “Asset prices reflect all known information”—emphasis on known.

Correct compared with tomorrow? Heck no. In the long term, the consensus is always wrong. In the past 40 years, the S&P 500 has ended the trading day unchanged only 10 times. Inputs change. Expectations change. Macro information changes. Industries change, sometimes ever so slightly. Markets move up or down to reflect new information and investor moods and stuff out of left field. Bull markets climb a wall of worry and top out when there is nothing left to worry about and all the good news is baked in.

My advice is to figure out in which direction the consensus is wrong. Warren Buffett says, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Sure, but the hardest part of investing is figuring out what everyone else thinks. Finding the pulse of the market is harder than waiting to buy when there is blood in the streets.

That pulse gets harder to gauge when bull markets turn everyone into momentum investors shouting, “The trend is your friend!”

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WSJ: cool Bond video

WSJ: James Bond’s License to Kill Fun

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/james-bond-license-to-kill-fun-daniel-craig-no-time-to-die-sean-connery-media-hollywood-11638713465

I’ve proudly seen every James Bond movie ever made, even the George Lazenby, Timothy Dalton and Pierce Brosnan doozies, plus Woody Allen’s 1967 “Casino Royale” spoof. As a kid, I even inhaled Duco Cement fumes assembling a plastic model 1964 Aston Martin DB5—with a working ejector seat!

Bond films delivered a feeling of sophistication and fun. The original James Bond was suave and sassy while he resolved sinister plots. He exemplified cool: He drank vodka martinis but never to excess, was impeccably dressed and, though flirty, was a gentleman. The early films were filled with innuendo and scenes that were simultaneously exotic and a touch campy. Sean Connery’s Bond had a joie de vivre. Roger Moore’s was less serious and a little over the top, but the audience was in on the joke.

Scholars love to analyze Bond creator and author Ian Fleming’s work as an allegory: Bond is the new Churchill, saving the British Empire from its inevitable postwar decline. Bond’s motivation in Her Majesty’s Secret Service is always God and country, epitomized in the opening scene of “The Spy Who Loved Me” when he skis off a cliff and unfurls a parachute emblazoned with the Union Jack.

But since Daniel Craig took over in 2006, things have turned strange, especially with his final Bond film, “No Time to Die,” which I recently watched. It was dark and gloomy like 2012’s “Skyfall.” Billie Eilish practically whispers the theme song, seemingly from a shrink’s couch. Bond was brooding, with a constant scowl on his face. What was he so depressed about, Brexit? No wonder Mr. Craig reportedly couldn’t wait to finish his run as 007.

What the heck is going on? After paying for $15 movie tickets plus overpriced and overbuttered popcorn, I expect to escape the drudgery of real life for a couple of hours. I want to come out of a dark theater with a huge smile on my face, not feeling as if I got hit by a sad sack of potatoes.

Why does Hollywood sulk so much these days? Is it simply reflecting society?

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