Andy Kessler, former hedge fund manager and Silicon Alley investor, has published a book, Eat People, that every entrepreneur needs to read as a reality check on her business.
In Kessler's book, entrepreneurs will find a yardstick to measure the chance for success of their as-yet undeveloped concept, or more precariously, the one they've already birthed. Will your product reach thousands? Not bad. But not enough. It needs to scale to reach millions or billions to be important in a world in which technology cycles happen faster than even their inventors can keep up with.
Truly groundbreaking. Every entrepreneur needs to read as a reality check on her business
Kessler answered my questions about entrepreneurship in the new century. His responses illuminate his book, which you should buy and read as soon as possible.
Reading your article I decided to buy the book for sure. Thanks for drawing my attention to it.
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Some banks will sputter, and maybe even fail, even the big boys. But they've already had two years since the end-of-the-world sell-off in March 2009 to get their acts together, and many can now pay dividends. Hopefully the FDIC is ready to dive in and remove the remaining toxic mortgage assets of any failing banks, along with their managements, and then refloat the institutions. This contingency should be well mapped out by now with the Orwellian-named "Orderly Liquidation Authority" in the Dodd-Frank law.
But along with a likely lower stock market and failing banks will be several positive effects that will finally kick-start the economy. Oil and wheat and commodities will see a 20%-30% drop in price as speculators run for the hills. This will be a de facto tax cut for consumers. Hiring should restart when businesses see normal short-term rates, most likely 2%.
Similarly, the dollar, suddenly backed by rising interest rates, will start to rise. Unlike those foolish enough to believe that a lower dollar is the path to growth, a higher dollar will lower prices across the board, especially at Wal-Mart—shoes, shirts and sugar. Even better, the companies that are leading the economy, such as Apple and EMC, will benefit from lower costs for memory and storage, as will Google and Facebook stocking their data centers. This price cut on productivity tools will be a good thing for the economy and the real wealth effect.
And even better, despite rising costs from higher short-term rates, surviving banks will lose their fear of rising long-term rates and will start lowering banking spreads, signaling their willingness to lend and fund a real recovery.
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“Running Money”, a primer on how he turned $11 million into $1 billion as a co-head of Velocity Capital. Disclosure.
Andy, can you correct his math please? He makes it sound like your returns were in the 10,000% range
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