Here is my conclusion, that we are 3 years into a 7 or more year deleveraging of household debt. The blue is actual through the first quarter of 2010. The red is trendline and the transparent blue box is my estimate for household debt to get back to trendline. You can download the data from this St. Louis Fed page.
Here is the same chart with data from 1980 instead of all the way back to 1953.
The original Fed chart looks like this:
OK, and now to show you there is nothing up my sleeve, here is the chart showing trendline. I used household debt data from the fall of 1983 start of the economic expansion through the spring of 2004, which was when Alan Greenspan declared that there was no deflation, but oddly didn't raise rates fast enough, the seeds of the credit bubble to follow. I used the Excel trenline function, using a simple linear trendline. You can select your own data and get different results, but I think I am pretty close.